Recent developments in Greek-Turkish relations are suggestive and, moreover, worrying. Among other things, I was moved back two and a half years, to 2020, when the leadership of a neighboring country decided to send thousands of unfortunate people to our border in Evros without travel documents, marching towards Europe.

There is one observation about these events that deserves public mention. Thousands of migrants suddenly appear at the border, at the exit from Turkey to Castanes, with torches and torches, demanding entry into Greece while trying to tear down the fence. The reaction of the Greek government followed immediately, on the one hand, through the operational deployment of police forces, and on the other, diplomatically, by informing and mobilizing the EU. and its competent authorities. At a time when Mr. Erdogan said that many tens of thousands were already in Europe, disappointment and sadness prevailed among the thousands of migrants camped in the Edirne region. Turkey’s local operatives were clearly embarrassed as they struggled to deal with the fiasco, political and operational. There was, as it turned out, no preparation, no plan B, no strategy.

The result for Turkey was a complete failure at all levels and condemnation from Europe. A few days later teams of border police officers from all European countries arrived in Castagna to guard European borders, and the Prime Minister welcomed the heads of leading European institutions to Orestiada; step high symbolism, but also practical support.

Having a complete picture and knowledge of Turkish business, I can characterize it without any exaggeration as a stormy, unprepared, uncontested plan. Almost the impulse of Mr. Erdogan, who believed for a moment that trespassing our borders was an easy task.

Coming to today, we see an enraged Erdogan threatening to come “suddenly overnight.” He repeatedly used the same phrase against Syria. He even promised then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that he would invite her to Damascus very soon. The results are known: Erdogan’s fury over Assad’s Syria became a complete “nightmare” for him with hundreds of thousands of dead civilians, millions of refugees, Turkey involved in the bloody adventure and a strong Assad instead.

However, this is the first time he has addressed the islands of the Aegean Sea in such a harsh and threatening tone during his long tenure as president of Turkey. Like his party, the AKP, unlike many nationalist parties, which have always put this issue as the dominant one in Greek-Turkish relations. So why did he adopt the rhetoric of the nationalist parties?

Turkey after Atatürk abandoned radical secularism and allowed a gradual and partial restoration of Islam in public life and especially in education.

First of all, he is trying to stem the tide caused by the rise of the nationalists ahead of the 2023 elections. The image of Greece as a defeated enemy has been deeply ingrained in the minds of the Turks since the founding of modern Turkey in 1923 and remains a common denominator for much of the country’s party system, from nationalists to conservatives and Islamists to neo-nationalists and social democrats. Such a reading may be correct, but not sufficient to justify new threats. His anger also reflects his frustration that Greece has tipped the scales in its favor in the geopolitics of the Southeast Mediterranean. Not only has Turkey not created a blue homeland, but Greece has entered into strategic alliances and agreements with the countries of the region, which now make it an important factor in stability and cooperation in the region.

He also feels uncomfortable because, with a deep trust gap in Turkish-American relations and a sanctions regime against his country, Greek-American relations are perhaps the first time they have acquired such great strategic depth. This strategic depth and importance of Greece is further enhanced by a new dimension regarding Alexandroupolis and the initiatives emerging there. After all, he and his country are at a disadvantage, as he was once kicked out of the joint F-35 fighter program, while Greece is rapidly moving towards joining the program, while it has entered into agreements to modernize the F-16 and began to receive the first Rafales. Further disappointing is its failure to isolate Greece and Cyprus from energy competition in the Eastern Mediterranean.

On the domestic front, Erdogan is in an even more desperate situation. He dreamed of becoming the “father of modern Turkey”, following in the footsteps of Kemal. He failed on all three fronts on which great hopes were placed from him, especially in the early years. In the field of reforms, all remnants of liberal democracy were liquidated, tens of thousands of people were arrested, and more than 150,000 civil servants were forced to leave their posts. In the realm of reconciliation and the creation of a modern Turkish national identity, despite his efforts, negotiations with the Kurds have failed and conflicts are currently raging. The situation in the economy is in danger of becoming chaotic, as the crisis reduces the income of the population. Finally, in foreign policy, while the Turkish president proclaims himself the “leader of the century”, jokingly calling on Macron to join the “Turkish Union”, Turkish citizens support EU membership by 60%.

What explains the gap between what Mr. Erdogan promised and the Turkey that exists today? The first generally accepted interpretation, shared by liberal intellectuals, focuses on the personality and temperament of the leader. But there is an additional “long-term” explanation, more structural. Turkey, after the ardent secular Ataturk, abandoned radical secularism and allowed a gradual and partial restoration of Islam in public life and especially in education.

Meanwhile, the AKP base is crumbling, as is the smaller ally of the MPZ. The notional opposition parties seem united and determined to challenge the rule and defeat Erdogan, who is so close to defeat for the first time. He will do everything he can to stay in power, and this is a challenge with potential implications at home as well as abroad in Europe and the Middle East.

* Mr. Michalis Chrysochoidis is a former minister.