14/10/2021, exactly one year ago, the city bus fell under the bridge in Poseidon, while pupils schools in New Philadelphia, they walked to desks to safely leave a flooded yard. At 12 o’clock Attica was “surrendered” in bad weatherBall».

Exactly one year later a new storm has come development– this time he was not named, but he characterized as “level 4”. Now, every time we get hit by an extreme weather event, the question is, will we come out of it safe and sound?

Meteorologist Costas Laguvarobservatory research director Athensare among the scientists who position themselves on the subject with suggestions and arguments, thanks to the many predictive tools that the Observatory is constantly developing.

Part suggestions You can also read about him in the articles he writes on behalf of the Observatory for Sustainable Development, which is part of the Ena Institute for Alternative Policies (eninstitute.org/ see recent: “Forest fires in Greece: suggestions for better preparation).

“K” talked to him about the problem of dealing with extreme weather events, which are now systematically occurring.

Megafires that are “here to stay”

First, for Mr. Laguvardo, megafires this is one of the greatest problems we face in our time climate crisis. As he explains: “We saw ‘monstrous’ fires pretty much in the summer of 2021 when Greece was very hot. But he had the same happen in 2000 but also in 2007. For all these three years, we have lost huge areas of forest in our country. It is very characteristic how the temperature is directly related to the burning area of ​​the forest. What makes 2021 different from other years is that we now know that the protracted heat waves lead to many burned earth. The reasons are a long drought and a lot of fuel, a consequence of very high temperatures. These fires, breaking out simultaneously in various places, have reached they remain“.

In addition to better knowledge of the mechanism of fires in the era of climate crisis, TO. Laguvar notes that scientists can now study this behavior in detail thanks to satellite imagery while it is in progress. “In other words, we have the opportunity to see in the photographs how “mushroom explosions” spread. where meteorologists they call pyrosoreites“. And there is another element that meteorologists are now studying better – “dead” fuel (leaves, needles, branches etc). As the meteorologist notes: “Using the network of 500 weather stations that the observatory has, we see what phase of the drought the dead fuel is in each period.”

According to him, many indicators that scientists now have they have lead to the creation of special models that predict the likelihood of a fire in certain areas at a certain time. As he explains: “Given parameters such as X period humidity levels, rain duration, or prevailing winds, we create high-resolution maps that give us a good idea of ​​what to expect.” And, of course, scientific instruments are being improved in the medical part. better known IRIS system that predicts evolution Fire currently.

Severe weather in autumn and winter

For autumn and winter weather, according to TO. Laguvardo things are completely different. “Precipitation forecasting follows a general improvement in weather forecasting, however, this remains the hardest part in the field of forecastinghe says and continues: this is part, we need additional technical and technological support, or rather, in terms of observation.

We need dense networks of stations, and there is also a lot of room for improvement in satellite measurements that can give a good estimate of how heavy the rains will be, with algorithms that have emerged in recent years. The weather radar network is also limited, which, over time, is underdeveloped and cannot support the requirements of the time.

Agency collaboration needed

So where is change what should be done in the preventive part, but also treatment extreme weather? OUR TO. Laguvar he answers with one word: “collaboration.”

As he explains, “we are not so lacking in technical means as cooperation and communication before and during developments between municipalities, regions, fire service, Scientific Carriers, EMP, Observatory. All of the above bodies should cooperate simultaneously, immediately and effectively. The truth, however, is that there are still persistent difficulties in integrating scientific knowledge into the operational functions of civil protection.

On the contrary, we have seen that in pandemic a committee of experts was created, where scientists from different positions collaborated and continue to cooperate they make, to solve the problem. The new one was voted last May climate Law, which, among other things, provides for the establishment of committees and working groups to better deal with extreme weather events and better inform citizens. Now it needs to be put into practice.”

Yes, oh TO. Laguvar also mentions an example of successful cooperation on a smaller scale. “Last year during bad weather “Hope”, the regional governor of Attica sought the opinion of the Observatory in a meeting he held with all mayors on whether schools should be closed on snow days. We told them that the snowfall will start early in some municipalities and the decision was very right not to open schools. Let’s think how many of us escaped this is an easy solution when thousands of drivers were stuck on Attiki Odos on the same day.”