Days after the FBI raided Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago, Florida mansion, Internet analysts noticed a disturbing phenomenon. Twitter posts about the “civil war” surged 3,000 percent in just a few hours as supporters of the former president condemned the federal raid. Similar trends have been recorded across the rest of the social media platforms, while the use of the phrase “civil war” has doubled in a few 24 hours on radio shows and podcasts, according to watchdog MME Critical Mention.

More than a century and a half after the end of the American Civil War, references to civil unrest, especially in the run-up to the November midterm elections, have become common among those on the right ideological spectrum. While the term is usually used metaphorically and refers to the country’s ideological polarization, for many the phrase is a real prospect.

Polls, surveys, and rising threats show that many Americans expect—and some desire—protracted political tension and violence, extremism researchers say. Although the trend is obvious, experts find it difficult to interpret it.

Divisive rhetoric creates conditions for political violence, experts warn.

Some far-right elements use the term “civil war” as an open call for an armed seizure of power. Others suggest prolonged heroic resistance, with outbreaks of political violence. The third group believes that the country is entering a “cold civil war”, manifested by acute polarization and suspicion, but without “hot” episodes.

Calls for violence come not only from anonymous accounts. Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor-Green accused President Biden of having a plan to kill every Republican. Experts explain that the constant flow of militant rhetoric has created an expectation of political violence in the future. A recent UK YouGov poll found that 54% of Republicans believe a civil war is “likely” within the next decade. Two years ago, a survey by the same company of a similar sample of the American population showed that 60% of those polled believed that a civil war was extremely unlikely.

Republicans have always claimed that their rhetoric is just political rhetoric, accusing Democrats of distorting it to further polarize it. Republicans say it’s Democrats and leftists who are fueling violence when they call the ideology of Trump followers “quasi-fascism,” as President Biden recently did.