The coincidence of many negative factors in the production and distribution of food today poses a threat of global hunger. 4/5 of the world’s population lives in countries that import food. More than 20% of calories and more than 18% of grains pass through some kind of boundary before reaching their destination.

The war in Ukraine has affected both production and the movement of goods in the country, which, together with Russia, is the largest grain exporter. Russian bombardments and the blockade of the port of Odessa interrupted the supply of grain to Africa and Asia. Asians can replace grains with rice relatively painlessly, but not Africans. The COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the productivity of the world’s population, followed by crop failures in food-exporting countries. China is about to get swine flu, and Western sanctions are preventing exports from Russia. If Odessa does not soon become the starting point for the grain dumped there, their fate awaits. An unprecedented drought in the US grain-producing belt is causing another decline in production at its source. A drop of about 20% is predicted. This contraction creates excess demand, leading to a spike in cereal prices.

Poor countries spend more of their income on food than rich countries. This is 1/4 of income in poor countries and 1/5 in rich ones. In sub-Saharan Africa, the share of income spent on food is 40% of the total. But the biggest blow to their movement is the policy of developed countries against raising food prices. This increase affects US inflation (8.3%) at a rate of 1.3%. Higher interest rates in the US and Europe, as insurance against inflation, place an additional burden on farmers’ production costs. In countries like Turkey, where inflation is at 80%, Muslim money ideology forbids Erdogan from charging high interest rates. The result is a decline in the value of the Turkish currency.

Are Moscow’s actions a response to European sanctions?

The amount of grain and other grains of Ukraine, which are delayed in the Odessa port, is about 25 million tons, that is, the equivalent of the annual consumption of our planet. The leaders of Russia and Ukraine agreed to allocate this amount. In other words, there must be cooperation to transport grain from the Black Sea ports through the Turkish Straits to the outside world. Shortly after the agreement, however, Odessa came under heavy shelling. Ukrainian President Zelensky attributed the bombing to a lack of confidence on the part of the Russians, while they explained that the attack was against a ship carrying Western ammunition for Ukrainians.

The continuation of the blockade increases the spread of famine, which threatens Europe with a new influx of refugees, mainly from Africa. Could this possibility be part of Russia’s response to European sanctions?

* Mr. Thanos Veremis is EKPA Honorary Professor, Vice President of ELIAMEP.