After the elections Androulakis, pasok recorded high double-digit percentages in the measurements. Tellingly, according to Pulse, in his intention to vote in January 2022, he received 14.5%. Since then, there has been a slow but steady downward trend. In the September post-TIF poll, he got 12%. The wiretapping case, while likely slowing down the retreat, does not appear to have improved his voting record much. At the same time, both ND and SYRIZA increased by 2 and 4 points respectively between January and September (Pulse 09/2022).

Inevitably, the question arises whether PaSoK’s double-digit election appeal is sustainable, given that this is an election year. To study the issue, several parameters must be considered.

First, the issue of “connections”, although considered important by most public opinion, ranks low in the ranking of priorities compared to other issues. On the one hand, because in the face of multiple crises such as inflation, the energy crisis and tensions between Greece and Turkey, citizens tend to focus on issues that affect them more directly. On the other hand, because in the public mind, surveillance is probably considered a timeless phenomenon. After all, there were many related cases that became known in the post-colonial years, and efforts to investigate them turned out to be completely ineffective.

Thus, the government and opposition parties are primarily judged on the basis of their effectiveness in dealing with dominant issues. In them, according to all public opinion polls, ND and Mitsotakis receive more positive reviews than their opponents. This de facto reduces the number of voters who are dissatisfied with the government’s policies and who would be ready to switch to another party.

Of course, the issue of wiretapping remains at the center of public attention, exacerbating the political confrontation and reinforcing the polarizing trend that has characterized Greek politics. However, polarization usually favors parties that dominate the two poles. The (one) in three “players” on the political scene are at a disadvantage and find it difficult to reap political benefits, even if their leader is at the center of the action.

Especially when the so-called “negative” party identification (negative party membership) remains active. And this means that the choice of many voters is significantly influenced by the degree of hostility they feel towards the opposition party. Thus, the strengthening of the anti-rightist trend coincides with the strengthening of the anti-SYRIZA trend. Significantly, prior to the connection case, according to the MRB (06/2022), 37.3% of citizens stated that “they would be worried if SYRIZA wins the next elections by at least one vote”, compared to 40, 5% who said the same about ND.

For its part, PaSoK is trying to politically equate Mitsotakis and Tsipras as two sides of the same coin in order to get out of the bipartisan urgency. However, his rhetoric seems to be aimed at voters who are simultaneously engulfed in both anti-right and anti-Syriza reflexes. Judging by the available polling data, such an electoral audience is rather limited. Most voters choose a side and generally believe that there is a “chasm” between them and the opposing side.

At the same time, the head-on confrontation between the opposition party and the current government highlights the issue of manageability. For political change to occur, the alternative to government must (among other things) be obvious. To date, however, the wording of the alternative government cooperation proposal remains rather unclear. Perhaps because it is considered politically premature and potentially dangerous in terms of voting. Nevertheless, the wiretap case had political implications. The prime minister’s message to today’s PASOK voters has dwindled somewhat. This event allowed Androulakis to insist on refusing to accept Mitsotakis and Tsipras for the post of prime minister in a possible government coalition. It also seems to make it easier, to a certain extent, to try to “guard” his existing polling frequency. However, given the increasing polarization of the two-party system, pressure on PASOK is expected to increase, testing its electoral and electoral strength. Therefore, it remains to be seen to what extent the public agenda in the coming months will change the conditions of political competition.

* Panos Koliastassis is a Doctor of Political Science at Queen Mary University of London (QMUL), Research Fellow at the University of Athens and Lecturer at the Hellenic Open University (HOU). His book “Prime Ministers in an Uninterrupted Election Campaign: K. Simitis, K. Karamanlis, G. Papandreou” is published by the Epikentro Publishing House.