The “sabotage” thesis emphasizes the spectacular gas leaks from the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea, an operation certainly difficult but by no means impossible for a competent military. And there are many of them in this area, the France-Presse agency noted on Wednesday.

The hypothesis of simultaneous random failures was ruled out on Wednesday. But the method of sabotage remains unknown, as does the alleged author, giving rise to many theories.

Area under surveillance

The three leaks discovered since Monday in the Baltic Sea are located near the Danish island of Bornholm, between southern Sweden and Poland. The area has been under intense surveillance for decades.

“In the past, the USSR deployed reconnaissance submarines with special engineering capabilities on the bottom of the sea,” reminds independent naval analyst H.I. Sutton in a post on Twitter.

But in the meantime, the Baltic countries have moved to the side of NATO. But the spills occurred in international waters where anyone can move.

“Currently, the Russian Navy has the largest fleet of reconnaissance submarines in the world. They are based in the Arctic. They would be able to damage the pipeline in the Baltic Sea,” – assures H. I. Sutton.

But he still considers this hypothesis “unlikely”.

Complex sabotage

The operation requires intervention at a depth of 70 meters. “This is something difficult. The damage to two gas pipelines on the seabed is a significant event, so a state actor is likely involved, says Leon Hirt, a professor at the Herty School in Berlin, expressly ruling out the possibility of a simple act of terrorism.

But a combat-ready army knows how to do it. The area is “perfectly suited for pocket submarines,” a senior French military official told AFP, citing the use of either combat divers sent to place explosive charges or a mobile mine or underwater drone.

“The drone takes off from a submarine, which may be several nautical miles away from the target point. It launches a mining drone that floats at a speed of about ten knots, close to the bottom of the sea,” he explains. “So the target is fixed and not very difficult (to hit).”

Instead, the hypothesis of using a torpedo, a useful weapon, rather for a moving target, in his opinion, is less plausible.

The explosion was “equivalent to the explosion of hundreds of kilograms of TNT,” a French official said. The Norwegian Institute of Seismology, NORSAR, which specializes in detecting earthquakes and nuclear explosions, estimated the energy of the second deflagration with the energy caused by approximately 700 kilograms of TNT.

Unsolicited operation

Western offices point the finger at Moscow, which, in turn, does not reject “any hypotheses” and reminds that the gas flowing from the pipelines belongs to it.

“The Baltic Sea is a closed and not very deep sea, where almost every movement is observed and controlled by the coastal countries and their ships,” says Julian Pavliak of the Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg.

But there are “ships and submarines capable of covertly deploying combat divers” and other remotely controlled underwater vehicles. Therefore, nothing is impossible for an army that has experience in covert operations.

“It’s called a special naval operation. It’s not something simple, but it’s done,” confirms a French military source. “It appears to be something well-coordinated and well-prepared.”

It may take some time for the truth to come out. Some analysts note in this sense that several actors benefit from ambiguity.

But then who did it?

“It remains to be seen who is leading the operation,” added a French military source. “And other countries have an interest in making sure that this pipeline never goes back into operation.”

In fact, there have been many opponents of Nord Stream-2 for many years, the United States being the leader among them. On February 7, two weeks before the start of the Russian invasion, US President Joe Biden mentioned the possibility of “putting an end to this”.

Then, when asked how the United States could proceed with this infrastructure under the control of its ally Germany, the American president replied: “I promise you, we can do it.” A video clip with this statement has been widely circulated on social media over the past day.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, a day after the Nord Stream gas pipeline was damaged, Poland, Norway and Denmark inaugurated a strategic gas pipeline that will allow Poles to reduce their dependence on Russian natural gas by importing gas from Norway. “The era of Russian dominance in the gas sector is over, an era marked by blackmail, threats and extortion,” said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki at the opening ceremony of the gas pipeline.

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