Vladimir Putin announced the “partial mobilization” of 300,000 people, but the actual number of those mobilized is one million, Nova Gazeta Europa reported on Thursday, citing a top-secret decree and a source in the Putin administration.

The Kremlin denied this information.

Experienced in combat and determined to win, Ukrainian soldiers perceive the imminent arrival of tens of thousands of mobilized Russians as a minor threat.

The commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhnyi, said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been repelling the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine for 8 years and 7 months, and that more untrained soldiers mean little, Ukrainian Pravda reports. .

“But how important is the number of Russians in the target zone for the Excalibur missile?” Ukrainian military expert Vladyslav Seleznyov noted ironically.

Ukrainian military fired artillery in Donbas Ukrinform / Shutterstock editorial / Profimedia

Ukrainian counteroffensive in three directions

The partial mobilization occurred after the unexpected success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east of the Kharkiv region, which was almost completely liberated by Russian troops at the beginning of this month.

And Ukrainian forces are ready to counterattack in three other directions, observers say:

• One is in the Luhansk regionthat south of Kharkiv, where the counteroffensive will be concentrated along the strategic Siverskyi Donets river. Heavy fighting took place over the summer with heavy casualties after Moscow withdrew its forces from four northern regions and the capital, Kyiv.
• The second direction is in the Zaporizhzhia region from the southeast, around the city of Gulyaipole, from where the Ukrainians can push deep into the territories occupied by Russia and divide them in half.
• And the third is the southern Kherson regionentrance to the annexed Crimean peninsula, captured in early March, probably due to the betrayal of some Ukrainian officials.

If the Ukrainian counteroffensive takes place in the coming days, Russia will not have time to prepare and deploy the newly mobilized troops.

Russian forces “will have to use them [trupele mobilizate] to form a second line of defense about 100 km from the current front line,” Mykola Mitrokhin, a Russia expert at Germany’s University of Bremen, told Al Jazeera.

Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev Photo: Mykhailo Metzel / TASS / Profimedia Images

According to him, the Russians will have to rebuild their battalions, which are “severely short” of troops due to heavy and disappointing losses in the past six months.

“If by the middle of October, Ukrainian forces manage to break through the front line in at least two directions and advance at least 50 km, they will deal a strong blow to Russian forces, which will lead to the curtailment of mobilization,” said Mitrokhin.

As a result, the inevitable loss of armored vehicles and artillery will greatly hinder the activation of Russian military power in the occupied territories, he added.

But if the Ukrainian breakthrough fails, the Russians can restore the combat capability of many advanced units.

“This does not mean that they will be ready to attack, but they can hold the front line,” Mitrokhin said.

“How (partial mobilization – no) can affect the course of the war? Only in the sense that it is now pushing Russia into problems within the country. Because all Russians who wanted to participate in hostilities are already on the battlefield, on the territory of Ukraine “, Ukrainian military expert Vladyslav Seleznyov explains in a comment to RBC.

“And even if they are, there are questions about their motivation, support and combat readiness. These 300,000 troops will not have a significant impact on the course of hostilities, because we understand how artillery works. But what is the significance of the Excalibur projectile? The number Russians in the place where the strike was carried out?” – Vladyslav Seleznyov remarked jokingly.

• Exclusive: How did the Russians decide that they should go to war? Raid on Russian social networks: “Deputies, drunkards and drug addicts should be sent first. Leave the boys alone!!!”

Mobilization in Russia may prolong the war, but will not affect it, Western experts believe

According to American experts, the mobilization announced by Vladimir Putin on Wednesday risks prolonging the war in Ukraine without changing the situation on the ground.

Western experts say it will be difficult for the Russian military to mobilize so many people, and recruits will arrive on the battlefield poorly trained and demotivated. “They won’t be able to do it well,” said Dara Massicot, a Russia expert at the Rand Corporation think tank, according to AFP.

Protests in Russia against Putin’s mobilization Photo: Oleksandr NEMENOV / AFP / Profimedia

“People will be gathered and sent to the front with outdated training, incompetent leadership and equipment in even worse condition than the active forces,” she added on Twitter. – They will send little by little, because they are in no hurry.

A lot, but no equipment

“The Russian military is not currently equipped to deploy 300,000 reservists quickly and effectively,” Alex Lord, a Europe and Eurasia specialist at London-based strategic analysis firm Sibylline, told CNN.

“Russia is already trying to effectively equip its professional forces in Ukraine after significant losses of equipment during the war,” Lord added.

“Essentially, they lack modern equipment … for so many new troops,” said Jakub Janowski, a military analyst who writes for the Oryx blog.

• Read also: VIDEO. What does “partial” mobilization look like in Russia: drunken fights, priests with holy water and suspicions of ethnic cleansing

Inadequate preparation

But Michael Cofman of the Center for a New American Security told AFP the risk that the arrival of new Russian troops on the front lines could prolong an already deadly conflict should not be underestimated.

“It might extend Russia’s ability to continue this war, but it wouldn’t change its trajectory or its outcome,” he said on Wednesday, arguing that Ukraine maintains its advantage on the ground.

This view is shared by Rob Lee of the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, who said there is “still every reason to be optimistic about Ukraine”, whose military has shown discipline and courage since the start of the war, in contrast to the demoralized and undisciplined Russian forces. .

Russian recruits after receiving their uniforms (photo: Dreamstime)

All experts agree on the low quality of Russian military training, which is often limited to a few weeks with little equipment.

“The problem is that the Russian military is poorly led and poorly trained,” said former General Mark Gertling, the former commander of US ground forces in Europe.

“Mobilizing 300,000 reservists after failing with depleted regular forces and a motley militia, after recruiting prisoners and using paramilitary groups like Wagner’s group, will be very difficult,” he says.

“And deploying recruits to a front line that has been breached, where morale is at an all-time low and soldiers don’t want to be there, portends another disaster,” he tweeted, adding that it was “another sign of Russia’s weakness.” “.

Sources: Al Jazeera, AFP, CNN

Read also:

• VIDEO Rare footage from the Russian recruitment center: “Done! You are all soldiers now! Why do you howl like women?”