Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech on Wednesday morning revealed several flaws that the Kremlin leader would likely want to hide from Russians, Ukrainians and their Western allies alike.

Retired Australian general Mick Ryan, a graduate of Johns Hopkins University’s Faculty of Advanced International Studies, explains in a series of posts on his Twitter the main goals that Putin pursued in his first address to the people after the address on February 24, when he announced the beginning of the “special military operation”:

• to please Ukrainian hardliners

• not to cause dissatisfaction among the general population

• at the pleasure of the armed forces

• to give the impression that he will not lose the war

Ryan says that the leader’s speech from the Kremlin at 08:00 on Wednesday is interesting overall, showing the wide range of interests that Putin is trying to please, and that it is a kind of Putin’s version of progress in renewing the war on the Russians.

He talked about the importance of referendums in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which, according to Mick Ryan, are just an excuse for Russians to say that “rapes, robberies and criminals sent to Ukraine protect Russia.”

It is interesting that Putin also referred to industrial production, saying that “the heads of defense and military enterprises will be directly responsible for increasing the production of weapons and military equipment.”

As always, he spoke about “NATO’s fault”, supplementing the speech with references to “the fault of Western elites”, a favorite leitmotif of Russian propaganda.

Putin blamed the decision to mobilize military leaders in Moscow

It is also interesting that regarding the decree on mobilization, he did not call it his order, but noted that “I consider it necessary to support the proposal of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff regarding partial mobilization.”

“It puts all the possible blame on the armed forces,” explains the Australian general, adding that a partial mobilization is unlikely to please the “hawks” of the Putin administration and Russian nationalists, but is likely to frighten the general population, as the explosion shows the demand for air tickets to the countries , which accept Russians.

Ryan also says it’s difficult to predict how long the mobilization process will take, but Russian forces preparing for front-line defense this coming winter are easier to train, equip and deploy than those preparing for offensive operations.

“Putin certainly felt pressure from the military to initiate this call to arms. A large part of the Russian army took part in this war. Russian military leaders watched their army slowly but surely disappear. They need to compensate for their losses if they want to keep the territories they have already won,” says the Australian officer.

He reminds that the Russian troops not only suffered huge losses in terms of the number of killed and wounded soldiers, but also that the troops who are still at the front in Ukraine have been fighting without rotation for 7 months.

“But the number of Russian soldiers that should be mobilized now is not enough to make a decisive contribution or change the fate of the war. Ukraine mobilized many more people. The solution is more about rotation and making up for losses than creating any new offensive capabilities for Russia,” Ryan says.

Ukraine has time to return the territories until new Russian troops arrive

Based on all this information, the Australian general draws other conclusions about Vladimir Putin’s speech:

• privately, Putin and his generals admit that they may lose this war. The personnel and industry measures described in the speech are clear signs of this;

• however, Putin is not giving up on war. He initiated this risky measure in the hope that he could continue the war until Western countries tired of supporting Ukraine;

• Last week, Putin heard Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi express warnings about war. But from their statements, Putin understood not that the war must be ended, but that he must win it, otherwise Russia’s position in relation to China and India in the international arena will seriously deteriorate;

• Deterring the West remains an important element of this war, as Putin’s new threat with his nuclear weapons has shown;

• The mobilization, training and deployment of these reservists to Ukraine will take time. This means that the Ukrainians have the opportunity to continue their offensive operations against the Russians.

General Mick Ryan concludes that, unfortunately, Vladimir Putin’s “bet” on partial mobilization will only prolong the agony of the Ukrainian people, giving no real chance for Russia’s victory.

“Ultimately, this statement does not change the prospects of Ukrainian victory. But this means that many more people will die before that happens,” he concludes.

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