Against the backdrop of a pandemic crisis in the government coalition that supported the government of Giuseppe Conte in late 2020 and early 2021, the tension between the political entities could no longer be reconciled, and Matteo Renzi decided that both ministers “Long live Italy” (Italia Viva) retired. President Sergio Mattarella tried for two weeks to smooth over the tension between Conte and Renzi, but failed, so on 26 January 2021, Giuseppe Conte resigned from his cabinet.

In the early days of February 2021, President Sergio Mattarella announced that he would delegate Mario Draghi to form a cabinet of technocrats after consultations with political formations. Mario Draghi quickly gained the support of the Democratic Party, Long Live Italy and Free and Equal, and later the Salvini League, Fort Italia and the 5 Star Movement. With a parliamentary majority of around 60%, Draghi’s government was elected without any problems.

After the Russian Federation’s attack on Ukraine, the Draghi government took a critical stance towards Moscow and supported both military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine and sanctions imposed by the European Union on the Russian Federation and Belarus. There was tension in the government because the right-wing parties did not approve of the Prime Minister’s initiative to support the cause of Ukraine.

Formally, the crisis of the Draghi government began in the middle of July this year, when the 5-Star Movement refused to support in the parliament the draft program of social support measures submitted by the government. At the vote in the Senate, 5-star senators abstained from voting, defiantly leaving the meeting hall. Mario Draghi requested an audience with President Sergio Mattarella and submitted his mandate, but was refused.

A week later, Mario Draghi gave a speech in parliament in which he accused the 5-Star Movement and the Salvini League of obstructing and continuing to obstruct the work of his government, after which right-wing formations (notably Force Italia) abstained. from a vote of confidence. The next day, President Mattarella accepted the resignation of Mario Draghi, who was left to lead the government and organize elections on September 25.

What happened in Italy is not entirely foreign to us, because the government of Dacian Ciolos – of course, preserving the peculiarities of the comparison – paid the same price when, as a “technocrat” prime minister, he took himself seriously and began to engage in politics, without taking into account the claims of one of the parties that supported the government. Mario Draghi took an anti-Putin stance, considering it legitimate, and probably his visit to Kyiv with Macron and Scholz was the event that forced the 5-Star Group and the Salvini League to end his mandate.

This is the latest photo that Mario Draghi took with the alleged European anti-Putinism troika, which certainly greatly disturbed Vladimir Putin, the consequences are already known. Of course, neither Giuseppe Conte nor Matteo Salvini admitted that the actions of their formations, which ended the mandate of Mario Draghi at the head of the government, had something to do with Russia and Putin. But Putin did not miss the moment and indirectly announced his small victory: on the day Sergio Mattarella accepted Draghi’s resignation, Gazprom increased ENI’s gas supplies from 21 million cubic meters per day to 36 million cubic meters per day.[3].

Mario Draghi tried not to leave the scenes of governance invisible to the average voter. At the beginning of August this year, his government (providing an interim period before the election) approved a €17 billion support package to protect companies and households in the face of accelerating energy and consumer goods prices, which is on top of the roughly €35 billion budgeted for January to mitigate the impact of exorbitant electricity, gas and gasoline costs[4].

The measures in the support package approved last month by the Draghi government mainly mean:

(i) measures to reduce electricity and gas bills for low-income families have been extended until the fourth quarter of the current year, as well as a reduction in system fees; the bonus of 200 euros will be extended to employees who did not receive it before; until April 2023, energy companies are prohibited from unilaterally making changes to electricity and gas supply contracts;

(ii) the period of reduction of excise duties on fuel at filling stations is extended by one month until September 20;

(iii) reduction in the second half of the current year of the tax burden on income, i.e. the difference between the salary paid by the employer and the net income of the employee, and the benefit is given to those with an annual income of less than 35,000 euros;

(iv) EUR 1.5 billion is allocated to increase pensions.

CURRENT VOTING SYSTEM

As of 2020, Italy’s electoral system has changed as a result of a constitutional referendum. September 25 of this year there will be voting for 400 deputies and 200 senators. The number of constituencies of the same name in which voting will take place has decreased for the Chamber of Deputies from 232 to 147, and for the Senate from 116 to 74.

Thus, 400 will be elected to the Chamber of Deputies: 147 in single-member constituencies, 245 in constituencies with nationwide proportional representation, and 8 in constituencies with proportional representation open abroad. 200 will be elected to the Senate: 74 in single-member districts, 122 in national proportional representation districts, and 4 in proportional representation districts open abroad. To them are added 5 lifelong senators and the seat of the former president of the republic.

Parties must receive at least 1% of the national vote in single-member constituencies and at least 3% of the national vote in proportional representation constituencies.

According to the results of current surveys, from the analysis political[5], it follows that after the elections in September ac. the right is expected to win 245 seats of deputies and 127 seats of senators, while the left will win 107 seats of deputies and 51 seats of senators.

WHAT DO THE AUGUST SOCIOLOGICAL POLLS SHOW?

An Ipsos poll conducted on August 29-30 this year shows the following interview results regarding the voting intentions of the Italian electorate about a month before the actual election[6]: in first place in the preferences of the electorate is the far-right formation Fratelli d’Italia (Fratelli d’Italia, leader Giorgia Maloni), with 24%, followed by the Democratic Party (leader Enrico Letta), with 23% of preferences.

Further, according to Ipsos, the preferences of the Italian electorate go to: the 5-Star Movement – ​​13.4%, the Salvini League – 13.4%, Forza Italia – 8%, Long Live Italy – 5%, the Green and Left Alliance – 4.1 %, Italexit – 3% and More Europe – 2%. The table below contains the results of other public opinion polls conducted during August, published by various specialized companies, for a more complete picture of developments over time, which are not exactly impressive.

WILL RIGHTS RULE IN ITALY AFTER THE ELECTIONS?

A simple arithmetic calculation shows us that a coalition formed by the right (including the centre-right and the extreme right) – the Brothers of Italy, the Salvini League, the 5-Star Movement and Forza Italia – would have an overall support in parliament of 57% and 59%; therefore, it is logical that these formations should unite in support of the government, and the party that has the best rating in the polls (and in the elections), i.e. the “Italian Brothers”, should be appointed as the prime minister. This is how Georgia Maloney’s name was spread for the post of future prime minister.

The alternative on the left side is not so promising; arithmetically, the coalition led by the Democratic Party of Enrico Letta, which unites the Alliance of Greens and the Left, does not gain more than 26% – 28%, which is absolutely insufficient.

The victory of the right-wing coalition in Italy would be similar to, say, what could be the victory in France of the coalition formed by Marine Le Pen’s National Union, which would also claim the mandate of the head of government, and Reconquête a Eric Zemmour, formations that do not hide their Euroscepticism, sympathy for Putinism and anti-immigration policy.

Unlike the 2018 elections, most observers who follow the political situation in Italy consider the elections on September 25 to be decisive, because after them either Rome will continue to be a pillar of stability for the European Union, or it will join the future European Union. the skeptical axis with Putinist visions together with Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.

But not everyone agrees with this point of view. First, it is emphasized that there is a significant segment of voters, more than 40%, who have not expressed their intention to vote or have declared that they will not participate in the vote for women parliamentarians in September. But it would be enough for a stable percentage to decide to mobilize to participate in the vote anyway, so that the estimates of the current polls would cease to be valid.

On the other hand, it is also noted that the right-wing coalition is much more ideologically consistent than the coalition that supported the Draghi government, so in theory it would be much more stable. The 5 Star Movement under Giuseppe Conte (even after Luigi Di Maio’s centrist faction left the party) moved further to the right, but is not necessarily an anti-European party. Berlusconi’s Italian forces have no anti-European ambitions and are the leading party. Read the entire article on Contributors.ro