This week, Belarusian dictator Oleksandr Lukashenko surprised everyone when he wished Ukraine “peace”, but in recent months the Minsk-based leader has undergone a significant “change of face”, despite consistently refusing to send troops to Ukraine.

In particular, on Wednesday, when the country celebrated Independence Day, Lukashenko wished Ukraine “a peaceful sky, tolerance, courage, strength and success in restoring a dignified life.” The message was immediately dismissed by officials in Kyiv, who accused the leader of allowing his troops to attack a neighboring country from its territory and allowing the Russian air force to use its air bases to be cynical.

After 6 months of war and countless belligerent statements by Moscow officials, few people remember that last winter, when Russia was still imitating the language of diplomacy and Vladimir Putin was more reserved, Lukashenko acted as a de facto spokesman for the Kremlin, insulting the Western leaders, threatening Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and stating that if Russia attacks, Kyiv will fall in 3-4 days.

Judging by the rhetoric, even by his aggressive standards, Lukashenko truly imagined that he would emerge victorious from a full-scale war in Ukraine at no cost. The decisive blow of the Russian armed forces was supposed to force Zelenskyi to flee from the snake of the Ukrainian army.

When a new pro-Russian government was installed in Kyiv, most likely under the leadership of former President Viktor Yanukovych, Belarus would send a limited contingent to Ukraine to “keep the peace” without directly participating in hostilities, as was the case in Kazakhstan in January.

In the end, Lukashenka’s troops will return home from occupied Ukraine with victory, without any losses.

PHOTO: Yevhen Biyatov / Sputnik / Profimedia Images

Lukashenko resisted pressure from Vladimir Putin

But from the first days of the invasion, it became clear that the “special forces operation” launched by Putin on February 24 did not go according to plan. Numerous videos of Russian armored columns set on fire or completely destroyed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces have radically changed Lukashenka’s rhetoric.

He gradually softened his speech, calling on Russia and Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table, initially with Belarus as a mediator. But those diplomatic efforts quickly fizzled out after it became clear that Turkey would be the main mediator in the talks between Moscow and Kyiv.

Although Lukashenko has allowed Russia to use his country’s territory for airstrikes, missile strikes and a ground invasion of Ukraine, he has rejected the idea of ​​sending Belarusian troops against the neighboring country.

The Kremlin took this lightly, constantly pressuring him to participate in the bloodshed on the Ukrainian front – in fact, he repeatedly promised that the Belarusian army would fight on Russia’s side if necessary.

As noted by Professor Ruth Dayermond from the military department of King’s College London in an extensive analysis published the other day, Lukashenka’s refusal to send troops to Ukraine was a real humiliation for Vladimir Putin.

“The situation is humiliating for the Kremlin: if it is not possible to shut down even Lukashenka, what will happen to Russia’s regional hegemony? And if Russia is not a regional hegemony, what happens to the Russian national identity, rooted in the belief that it has the status of a great power?”, the note says.

PHOTO: Video shooting

Fear that Belarus will enter the war against Ukraine

But when it came time for Belarus to send troops to fight alongside the Russians, Lukashenko’s rhetoric changed again. According to his new argument, the West tried to draw Belarus into the war, but Minsk foiled the plans and will leave its army to heroically defend the Russian rear in Ukraine.

During March, when Russian troops tried to surround the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, there were speculations that Belarus would join the war. Despite warnings about this from the Ukrainian special services, a large-scale deployment of Belarusian forces still seemed unlikely given their low combat readiness.

The most likely scenario was a limited incursion of Belarusian special forces into northern Ukraine to disrupt Kyiv’s supply lines and draw Ukrainian troops from other theaters of war. From 5 to 10 battalions of Belarusian special forces and mechanized brigades conducted maneuvers along the border with Ukraine in March.

At one point, Belarusian armored vehicles and tanks were marked with the famous “V” and “Z” symbols used by Russian troops and pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. It seemed that the entry of Belarus into the war was inevitable.

In the end, Lukashenka’s troops never crossed the border. At the end of March, Russian troops withdrew from the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, and Belarus’ participation on the northern front lost all practical meaning.

Eight battalions numbering about 5,000-6,000 Belarusian soldiers are still constantly rotating along the border with Ukraine, but military analysts estimate the probability of any offensive actions as very low.

So why didn’t Belarus enter the war, despite the obvious pressure from Russia?

PHOTO: Wikimedia Commons

The Armed Forces of Belarus are not happy to participate in the “special operation”

First, it is extremely unpopular in Belarus to get involved in a war against Ukraine. Although more than 30% of the population supports Russia in the conflict, only 3% of the country’s citizens support Minsk’s direct participation in the war. Even the majority of Lukashenka’s supporters are against it.

Of course, in the conditions of an authoritarian regime, public opinion, even the opinion of supporters of the regime, can be ignored.

But another, more urgent reason for Lukashenka is the state of the Belarusian army, especially its ground forces. Despite the large amount of equipment, Belarus actually has only 20 modern T-72B3 tanks. The rest are, at best, obsolete combat vehicles of the 1980s.

The morale of the Belarusian forces is not better either. While rumors of unrest and purges among senior officers likely stem, at least in part, from the “work” of Ukrainian intelligence services, low morale and reluctance to fight among the Belarusian armed forces, especially among conscripts, are facts.

Ukrainian border guards had already recorded cases of desertion from the Belarusian armed forces or security forces even before the start of the war.

PHOTO: Maksym Guchek / AFP / Profimedia

“Colonel” Lukashenka has a cardboard army

In addition, Lukashenka’s army is not only poorly equipped, but also very small. Currently, there are two ground forces commands in Belarus – the operational command “West”, which covers the border with Poland, and the operational command “Northwest”, which is responsible for the defense of the border with the Baltic states.

Each command has two mechanized brigades consisting of three motorized infantry battalions and two tank battalions, one artillery brigade, as well as technical and logistical support units. In peacetime, the brigade numbers about 1,500 soldiers, in wartime the number increased to 3,000.

This means that a brigade cannot deploy more than 2-3 battalions at the same time. Another six battalions could be deployed by special forces, given their total strength of about 6,000 elite soldiers (9,000 in wartime).

In general, the combat capacity of the Belarusian army is now estimated at approximately 16 battalions or 11,000 soldiers (25 battalions or 17,000 soldiers after partial mobilization). This amount is barely enough for the defense of the Belarusian territory, which would remain open if a significant contingent was transferred to Ukraine.

In fact, Lukashenko, who lamented in early February that Vladimir Putin had promised to make him a colonel in the Russian army but had not kept his word “yet”, needs his army for more than defense against external threats such as NATO, as well as internal .

In 2020, the military, and especially special forces, played a decisive role in suppressing popular protests caused by the rigged August elections. Sending them to Ukraine will not only lead to the almost-certain destruction of the units, but may also provoke a new wave of mass protests, which, in the absence of the military, may be more successful than those of the past two years.

The analysis was published by CEPA, the Center for European Policy Analysis.

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