It is possible that there will be a new wave of his pandemic coronavirus in our country in the autumn-winter period, according to EODY, which, however, reassures about the possible spread of the Centaur mutation.

Parameters that make the virus more contagious

Initially, EODY explains in a statement that the evolution of the course of the coronavirus depends on the balance between the infectivity of the virus and immunity in society.

Parameters that increase the infectivity of the virus:

1. climatic parameters (for example, in autumn and winter, the contagiousness of coronavirus increases significantly due to the fact that we spend more time indoors),
2. from the emergence of new mutant strains of the virus, which can increase its infectivity or the possibility of immune escape, the ability of the virus, that is, to infect people with immunity,
3. other properties such as, for example, whether the virus affects the upper respiratory tract and is therefore more easily transmitted, etc.

At the same time, immunity in the population depends on vaccination coverage, the time elapsed since vaccination, the type of vaccine and strains included in it, and also on whether we were infected with the virus, species. (variant, subvariant) of the virus that infected us and the time elapsed since the infection.

Because every autumn and winter we have new waves

A coronavirus causes new waves when its ability to infect a population (contagiousness) increases relative to immunity in the population.

For the above reasons, this occurs during the autumn-winter months and when immunity against infection is weakened, either due to the emergence of a new variant / sub-variant, or in combination with the passage of a long period of time after our vaccination. or exposure to a virus.

EODY reassures about “Kentauro”

Based on current experience, EODY explains that the likelihood of a new sub-variant becoming dominant or causing a new wave due to the new sub-variant depends on whether the new sub-variant has a relative advantage over the sub-variant circulating in the population.

Although the sub-variant BA.2.75 “Centaur” appeared a few months ago, it is currently only popular in India and no other region.

Therefore, there is no evidence that he can defeat Omicron (BA.5), and it is not certain that he can prevail in a country like ours with a large percentage of Omicron.

Coronavirus is unpredictable

In conclusion, EODY concludes that in the autumn-winter period in our country, a new wave is very likely to appear for the reasons indicated above. However, this is not guaranteed due to the possible dominance of the “Centaur” subvariant.

Also, the high levels of hybrid immunity in the population and the high intensity of the recent Omicron wave make the course of the coronavirus unpredictable in the near future.

On the other hand, it is almost certainly important that the protection provided by a vaccine is against serious illness, and that the coronavirus, although it continues to circulate among us, unless something changes dramatically in terms of the properties of the virus, causes serious illness in smaller proportions. compared to the past.

Ultimately, adherence to protective measures, vaccination, early diagnosis and in no case breeding panic are our weapons in the fight against it.