Statements by the FSB, Russia’s dreaded security service, about Daria Dugina’s alleged killer demonstrate one of the main gaps in the Kremlin and its propaganda apparatus.

Mark Galeotti, a historian and security policy expert who is considered one of the world’s most respected analysts of Russia-related issues, says the FSB’s assertion on Monday that Dugina was killed by a Ukrainian woman who later fled to Ukraine is interesting, as they once again demonstrate that the Kremlin seems oblivious to the dangers of attributing failures to incompetence.

Galeotti mentions on his page about Twitter about the explosions in Crimea and the explanation offered by the Russians for one of them: that it was caused by a soldier who carelessly put out a cigarette.

“I can understand the desire to deny that Ukraine can target these places accurately and effectively, but that means accepting the view that there is incompetence behind them and that they were incompetent in their positions,” he says.

Galeotti, the author of several bestsellers about Russia and President Vladimir Putin, examines the scenario of the murder of Daria Dugina presented by the FSB: a Ukrainian woman with a 12-year-old daughter, after she carried out the attack, chased the daughter of the ideologue Vladimir Putin in a van, on which he had several fake rooms

“Then she carelessly headed for the border with Estonia and crossed it without any problems. Who knows, maybe this is true, but it also shows a rather big failure of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (not the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs) and the FSB,” states Galleotti.

The Kremlin seems oblivious to its own incompetence

The historian says that this seems to be one of the Kremlin’s major mistakes, that he does not understand how developing such a story gives him an aura of incompetence, and that it happens quite often.

“Ultimately, this is the crux of Russian nationalist criticism of Vladimir Putin: that despite his macho managerial demeanor, he is actually a weak, indecisive, corrupt and incompetent champion of Russian interests. It’s unclear how many less die-hard people will experience it as well,” says Mark Galeotti.

He also argues that fear can be a useful tool of the state, but not if people don’t believe that the state can also keep them safe.

“Of course, it’s easy to blame Kyiv, and no doubt we’ll see some retribution on Wednesday (Ukrainian Independence Day), but in the long run, I suspect it will further erode the Kremlin’s myth of competence and victory narrative,” on which Russia will gain , concludes Galeotti.

Ukraine denies involvement in the murder of Daria Dugina

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, on Monday again denied the involvement of Ukrainian special services in the murder of the daughter of Oleksandr Dugin, who is considered one of the main ideologues of Vladimir Putin.

“Russian propaganda lives in a fictional world (…) Responsibility for blowing up propagandist Dugina’s car was placed on a woman (Ukrainian) and her 12-year-old child. It is surprising that they did not find an “Estonian visa” on the spot. The vipers of the (Russian) special services have started an interspecies struggle,” the adviser to the President of Ukraine wrote on Twitter.

Since Sunday, Podolyak has denied Ukraine’s involvement in the murder of Daria Dugina.

On Monday, Vladimir Putin spoke for the first time about her death, condemning the “despicable crime”.

“A despicable, cruel crime prematurely ended the life of Daria Dugina, a bright and talented person with a truly Russian heart,” reads Putin’s condolences, published by the Kremlin and addressed to the relatives of Oleksandr Dugin’s daughter.

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