Ammunition explosions and a fire at a substation in the Dzhankoy region of Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia and turned into a major military base before a new attack on Ukraine, were first recognized by the Russian military as sabotage. Prior to that, the death of the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship, the cruiser Moskva, and the loss of nearly nine aircraft at Novofedorovka airport were explained by fires and accidental detonations. Why did the Kremlin decide to no longer disguise its losses in combat as chance?

Explosions in Crimea

Explosions are heard on the peninsula annexed to Russia. It all started with an explosion in Sevastopol near the Black Sea Fleet headquarters. Then – the airfield in Novofedorovka near the resort of Saki. The Ukrainian side has not officially claimed responsibility, but US media have reported that Ukraine’s Armed Forces are behind it, citing a “high-ranking source”. Then things went wild: a substation near the village of Maiskoye, in the Dzhankoy district of Crimea, through which energy from the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant captured by the Russian army could be transmitted to Crimea; an ammunition depot is also not far from Dzhankoy; another airfield is near the village of Gvardeyskoye.

And now, the adviser to the head of the Cabinet of the President of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, in an interview with the Guardian newspaper, directly calls the Crimean Bridge, which connects the peninsula annexed to the Russian territory of Krasnodar, a legitimate target. Crimeans themselves recount rumors to one another in a more disturbing way. Allegedly, many sabotage friends operate on the peninsula. Someone says that they came with refugees from the occupied regions of Ukraine, others that they made their way by sea. Despite the fear of Russian special services and the risk of receiving administrative punishment, and even a criminal article for forgery or discrediting the army, possible new military targets of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Crimea are also mentioned. While the Crimea Bridge is intact.

Russians on the “mainland” also no longer believe the official versions. They don’t want to turn themselves from tourists into targets like tourists in Novofedorivka. It is not surprising that after the explosions at military airfields, the Crimean bridge became famous for its record-breaking performance. True, contrary to their discovery, when thousands of cars rushed from Russia to the annexed Ukrainian peninsula, now the Russians were on the run.

Crimea is not a base, but a target?

People who had not previously thought they had gone to rest on the front lines did not run across the bridge. He spread the word about what is happening in Crimea across Russia. Also, in the form of rumors and personal testimonies, which are traditionally more reliable than propaganda media.

It is no longer about the rupture of the tourist season, which is still being discussed on social networks due to inertia. Everything is more serious. One has the feeling that these explosions awoke the Russian “deep people”, who did not realize the gravity of the situation. Believing in official propaganda makes life easier for many. But only until the gap between officialdom and reality begins to threaten their lives. Regional websites across Russia write about these acts of sabotage, and while officials talk about a radical increase in protection of the Crimean bridge, these posts reveal frank doubts about the ability to protect the bridge after explosions at military airfields and rumors that the Russian military will relocate their aircraft into the peninsula or to the mainland.

The Kremlin only understands strength

The Kremlin hesitates, is forced to admit that it is not omnipotent. And if for outside observers this is nothing new, for a significant part of Russians it is an unpleasant discovery.

However, some explain the recognition of the fact of sabotage according to a complex conspiracy scheme. Allegedly, Vladimir Putin and his entourage were waiting for a dignified excuse to launch a new offensive in Ukraine. But it is not by chance that CNN Türk reports that, in fact, the Kremlin is ready for personal negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. There are other signs about the Russian side’s desire to “freeze” the war.

This is a clear confirmation that Vladimir Putin and his entourage only understand force. The more difficult their situation, the more clearly it becomes clear that the population of Russia begins to doubt their propaganda manipulations, the more they are inclined to compromise. And that, unfortunately, is a guarantee of a further escalation of the war, if anyone seriously wants to end it.

Author: Ivan Preobrazhensky, candidate for political science, expert on Central and Eastern Europe, columnist for various media. Writer of a weekly column for DW. Ivan Preobrazhensky on Facebook: Ivan Preobrazhensky

The commentary expresses the author’s personal opinion. It may not agree with the opinion of Russian editors and Deutsche Welle in general.