Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general who was educated at the US Marine Corps Command College, explains what the Ukrainians need for an offensive in the south of the country and the factors that leaders in Kyiv consider when deciding on a large-scale offensive. .

His analysis posted on his page, the Australian general begins with Twitter recalling the many mistakes Russia made in the war, noting that it ran into a bad strategy based on false assumptions.

“This started numerous military failures. Poor Russian tactics and logistics resulted in the loss of large numbers of personnel and weapons during the failed attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv. This, as well as problems with the troop reinforcement system, limit its offensive capability,” he explains.

Ryan says that, therefore, to advance elsewhere, Moscow’s military command had to focus a large percentage of its offensive potential (though not all of its forces) in eastern Ukraine to achieve Vladimir Putin’s goals for Donbass.

This left the Russians vulnerable on other fronts, a vulnerability exacerbated by how well Ukraine played the lower hand in the conflict.

“As I’ve written before, Russia has the table in this war, but Ukraine has the brains and the heart,” says Mick Ryan.

The war in Ukraine has reached a turning point

He also reminds that for some time the Ukrainians allowed themselves to be drawn into the hostilities in Donbas, but the appearance of the HIMARS systems on the battlefield allowed them to somewhat “break contact” and return to attacking operational vulnerabilities of the forces. Russian troops, both in the east of the country and in the south.

“Although the Ukrainians still face a difficult defensive campaign in the east, they have been able to conduct operations to retake territory in the south, which is perhaps the most important and decisive theater in this war,” the Australian officer said.

According to him, the conflict has reached such a point that many expect a large-scale offensive of Ukrainians in the south of their country. During the last two months, they have been preparing the ground, including striking behind the front, for example, on an airbase and ammunition depots in Crimea.

• On the same topic: Why the new explosion in Crimea could have great strategic importance / Russians flee from HIMARS systems in vain

The political factor will play an important role in the advance to the south of the country

Next, the Australian general explains some factors that will be taken into account by the Ukrainians when planning a large-scale offensive:

Policy. The Ukrainian government is likely under pressure to launch an offensive before winter to continue receiving military aid from the West. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi will have to find a balance between maintaining the support of the West and returning Ukrainian territory.

This may conflict with military capability, which is normal in war, as the general points out. “Remember that war is the achievement of political goals,” he notes.

In addition, Ukraine cannot allow static front lines to become normal when the Russians are already preparing referendums on the annexation of all occupied territories.

Operational planning. Mick Ryan says this is an important component of military professionalism, and it is important to align tactical objectives and actions with strategic and political objectives.

For Ukraine, the plan could have targets focused against the Russian armed forces, such as destroying all forces west of the Dnieper or isolating them to force them to retreat.

The goal can also be geographical, focused on the conquest of territories or cities.

But whatever the military leadership in Kyiv decides, one of the key goals will also be to strike at the morale of the Russian troops and at their (and the Russian population’s) confidence in their own ability to continue the war.

An important aspect of Ukrainian planning will be the distribution of forces, logistics, intelligence gathering, transportation and cooperation between different types of armed forces.

“This requires a plan that takes into account how many offensives are going on at the same time and how each one starts,” the general explains.

The most important thing is what the Ukrainian generals will take into account

Time. “In war, you are always against time. The ability to use time is one of the most important factors in planning and conducting military campaigns,” Ryan writes.

He recalls a quote from Colin Gray, former director of the Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Reading in the UK, who stated that “every military plan at every level of warfare is driven by a clock.”

For the Ukrainians, this will mean determining the best moment to launch an offensive.

“It takes a lot more work than most people can imagine. He will need excellent information about Russian reserves, combat capabilities and logistics, especially in light of the latest reinforcements received by Russian forces,” explains Mick Ryan.

Timing can also have a political dimension, as politicians can pressure generals to launch an offensive before the armed forces are ready.

It is important that the choice of time will be influenced by the ability of the Ukrainians to concentrate and coordinate their forces from the point of view of combat operations at the operational level, support of artillery, aviation, communications, logistical support, psychological warfare, radio-electronic warfare, etc.

Ultimately, Ukrainian forces will also need strategic support.

What remains of Ukrainian industry and Western military aid will be needed to provide the weapons and ammunition needed to support the offensive, which is extremely expensive in terms of military materials and ammunition.

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