“Another GDP growth surprise,” BCR’s chief economist wrote in the headline of a report aimed at investors. “GDP growth is surprisingly strong,” economists from the BRD analytical service also write. Romania’s economy was growing 5.8% in the first 6 months of this year, but the growth in the second quarter is somewhat unexpected, as many macroeconomic indicators do not look very good at all
Fast GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 was +2.1% (QoQ) or 5.3% (YoY), well above the Bloomberg consensus (+2.7% YoY) and our estimate (+2.8% y/y).
In its latest press release, the BNR expects “a quasi-stop in economic activity in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2022,” Ciprian Dascălu writes in the report.
Growth in the second quarter contradicted high-frequency data, both hard and soft. Industrial production fell 2.5%, retail sales rose 2.9%, and construction jobs fell 0.9% in the first two months of the second quarter compared to the first quarter. The economic sentiment indicator also fell to 102.1 in the second quarter from 102.6 in the first quarter.
BRD: GDP growth surprisingly strong in Q2
According to the signal estimate published by the INS, GDP in the second quarter of 2022 grew by 2.1% qoq (seasonally adjusted) and 5.3% yoy (raw series).
Wednesday’s numbers beat market expectations (Reuters consensus: +3.5% y-o-y) as high-frequency indicators as well as sentiment indicators pointed to a clear loss of momentum. The component breakdown is not yet available, NIS will publish on September 7th along with the previous dates.
Source: Hot News RO
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