Exactly two years ago, on August 16, 2020, the first mass protest march took place in Belarus. And although the protests in the country began on the night of August 9, the day of the presidential elections, it was on August 16 that large numbers of protesters marched. It was a protest march that surprised the world not only with the number of participants, but also with an exceptionally peaceful attitude. The protesters carried flowers, balloons and flags in their hands, were beautifully festively dressed and cleaned themselves up. They didn’t break anything and even took off their shoes to stay on the bench. This situation has become a demonstrative meme about protest marches in Belarus.

It can be said that all this time in Belarusian society there was a certain consensus about an exclusively peaceful confrontation with the authorities, only the fringes who did not have broad support could speak about forceful pressure. However, now the situation has begun to change – two representatives of “power” have appeared in the newly created Tikhanovskaya transition office, and the opposition is seriously discussing the “power scenario”. Does this mean a change in the Belarusian protest strategy and the emergence of a demand for radicalization in society?

The war in Ukraine and the repressions in Belarus influence the discourse of democratic forces

The fact that the opposition is changing the strategy of confronting the authorities, Belarusian analysts began to speak after the conference “New Belarus”, which was held in Vilnius from 8 to 9 August. In it, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya announced the creation of a transitional cabinet, in which the head of BYPOL Alexander Azarov will be responsible for restoring law and order, and Lieutenant Colonel Valery Sakhashchik of the Airborne Forces will be responsible for national defense and security. Although Tikhanovskaya herself never called for the overthrow of Lukashenka by force, during the discussion several democratic forces seriously discussed the creation of a “national liberation movement” or even an alternative army, although they had quite different views on this issue.

“Peaceful protest in democratic forces is conceptually buried. Two years ago, it was bad to talk about vigorous resistance. Today it is mainstream, no one opposes defenders of a strong decision. The influence of war on discourse is obvious,” he said. analyst Artem Shraibman wrote on his Telegram channel after the earnings conferences.

Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Institute of the Political Sphere, links the appearance of a “military minister” in Tikhanovskaya’s team to the radicalization and militarization of politics in the region – repressions in Belarus and the war in Ukraine: war on scale, the idea of ​​counter -blunt attack does not seem unacceptable. Furthermore, “the rhetoric and policy of the authorities is extremely harsh, militaristic and constantly refers to the justification of direct violence on the basis of political expediency. Against this backdrop, talking about peaceful protest seems to many a manifestation of helplessness. “

There is no consensus on a “strong scenario”

At the same time, Kazakevich does not believe there is now general approval of the use-of-force scenario. “Proponents of a hard-hitting solution cannot be said to have a clear and agreed understanding of the mechanisms and means – as long as it is more of a declaration of intent and a show of determination. this issue of the leadership of European countries and the US. While it must be acknowledged that the “hard solution” is gaining more and more popularity and is becoming increasingly “legitimate” and justified for opponents of the authoritarian”, says the political scientist.

The thesis of the political scientist that there is still no full approval of the blunt scenario among the opposition is also confirmed by the words of the “military minister” Valery Sakhashchik himself, who, although he allows a blunt solution to the issue, says that he “will make every effort to so that it doesn’t reach Togo”. Furthermore, Sakhashchik has repeatedly emphasized that the creation of a power structure is largely necessary to demonstrate strength, and has also said that he plans to act exclusively in the legal field.

“Belarusians will prefer Lukashenka to civil war”

Political observer Valery Karbalevich, in turn, notes that it is necessary to share the climate among democratic forces and among Belarusian society. “Yes, the trend has changed in the opposition now, democratic forces are focusing on forced confrontation. But whether the Belarusians themselves will fight by force is another matter, there is no certainty here.”

According to him, there is indeed a demand for a strong scenario among Belarusian society, but this applies to the more radical and politicized public of the opposition. “It is hardly possible to say that this is the absolute majority of the population. War still scares people, the instinct of self-preservation is at work here. I think that even people who sympathize with the opposition will not support the use of force, such rhetoric will scare a significant part of society. I am afraid that people prefer Lukashenka to civil war in the country”, believes Karbalevich.

Political scientist Kazakevich points out that there is no sociological data on the “power scenario”, and it is unlikely that the answers to such questions can be sincere, as the sociologist asks the interviewee to actually confess to being ready to commit a crime. “I think most Belarusians would like to avoid this scenario. On the other hand, many supporters of Lukashenka are also not enthusiastic about his militarism, but that doesn’t change their political views. So it’s not a fact that opposition opponents of violence will not support democratic leaders on the basis of military rhetoric. How this all plays out in different segments of society requires careful observation.”

Now the strength scenario is impossible

In addition, experts agree that, although there is a harsher rhetoric among democratic forces, in the current Belarusian conditions it is not possible to implement a power scenario. “There are simply no conditions for this. How can I resist the state’s armed forces? The resources will obviously be unequal. Creating a complete army in foreign territory is also not possible for me”, believes Karbalevich.

Andrei Kazakevich also talks about this, although he notes that the situation may change in the event of a political crisis in Russia and the beginning of the collapse of the Belarusian power system: “The presence of several hundred experienced military personnel who can quickly organize themselves and instruct more some fans may have essentials in a crisis situation. The very fact of the presence of such “fighters” can be a psychological deterrent during a crisis. But all this is hypothetical, opposition forces cannot significantly influence the formation of this situation, but logic can be found in the development of such scenarios.”