The Russian military lost 10 fighter jets in an explosion on Tuesday at the Saka airfield, which represents a small part of Moscow’s air force, but the naval aviation capabilities of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet are now significantly impaired, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said on Friday. morning assessment.

Ukraine maintains secrecy because military experts see Russia’s uncertainty about what happened as a significant advantage.

At the same time, suspicions are growing that the type of explosions may indicate a Ukrainian surface-to-surface missile strike. Images provided by the independent satellite company Planet Labs show three nearly identical craters. According to Der Tagesspiegel, houses in Sack were also precisely hit.

Given that the military base is located 200 kilometers from the front, one question is especially relevant: what missiles could Ukraine use?

Pentagon: We didn’t give them ATACMS tactical missiles

On Friday, the Pentagon said it had no information about the reasons for the recent explosions at a Russian military base in Crimea, stressing that the United States had not supplied Kyiv with weapons to carry out such an attack, reports AFP.

“What I can tell you is that it wasn’t an ATACMS strike because we didn’t give them ATACMS,” a senior US official said on condition of anonymity, referring to the 300-kilometer tactical ballistic missiles that Kyiv has. trying to persuade Washington to provide

Currently, Western salvo systems have a maximum firing range of 80 kilometers.

The focus is on a new weapon system

Looking for ways the Ukrainians could attack such a distant target, the eyes of experts quickly fell on a new weapon system being developed in Ukraine, but not yet in use.

Since 2003, Kyiv has been working on a missile launch system with a range of up to 500 kilometers; the last type of weapon is known as Grom-2 (Thunder 2).

The system is supposed to be the successor to the Soviet Toschka U system. Ukrainians are helped by the fact that the country has been a center for the production of missiles and related launch systems for decades and has the relevant know-how.

Until now, it was said that “Grom-2” would be operational no earlier than 2022. So this would be suitable. The prototype was also presented at a military parade in Kyiv. However, there is currently only one prototype with two missiles.

An airport in Crimea would be a useful target for these weapons.

On Tuesday, the New York Times quoted an anonymous Ukrainian official as saying that the weapons used in the attack were “exclusively Ukrainian-made.”

US anti-radiation missiles as a door?

However, “Grom-2” can be effectively used only in combination with so-called anti-radar missiles – for example, the AGM 88 Harm type, which the USA recently delivered to Ukraine.

They detect enemy radar signals and then purposefully destroy them. Even turning off the radar doesn’t help when the missile is on target. Without the hole in the air defense system, the Grom-2 missiles would almost certainly have been intercepted.

Military expert: Russia has problems with air defense

Military expert Gustav Gressel considers the Russian versions of the accident while smoking near the ammunition depot to be unlikely. He also suggests that there was no sabotage. “So basically what remains is a drone attack or a missile attack,” he explained to ZDF.

Gustav Gressler (ZDF)

“I think a missile attack is the most likely, simply because of the nature of the impact and the depth of the craters. These could not be ordinary artillery shells that have been used so far in the war in Ukraine,” says Gressel.

It is also unlikely that the weapons were supplied to Ukraine by the US or other NATO countries. “There are some systems that were developed in Ukraine, and the reason for this could have been at least experimental samples of missiles,” says a military expert.

If it really was a Ukrainian missile attack, anti-radar missiles would also play a central role, military expert Gustav Gressel believes. Their very presence could ensure that Russia would be able to leave most of its radar systems ready for a strike in Crimea.

“If only one radar system is active instead of four or five, then that radar operator decides whether or not to detect a missile attack.” According to Gressel, taking countermeasures is a “split-second decision.”

If this point is missed, the damage is, of course, huge, says Gressel. The fact that Russia is installing radar mockups also indicates problems with air defense.

Grom 2 (Tunde 2), Ukraine’s secret weapon? (recording on YouTube)

But what would be the consequences for the further development of the war?

If Ukraine does indeed have missiles with a much longer range, weapons depots, railway junctions and other infrastructure facilities far away in Russian territory will suddenly become possible targets.

However, the question remains open, why is Ukraine using this weapon only now? There were already targets worthy of consideration at a long distance.

Grässl explained that the Russian side now has to think about how to protect its central military points, for example, with anti-aircraft systems.

Moscow could also further decentralize logistics, disband large camps and distribute them into many smaller camps to make itself less vulnerable. But this would significantly slow down the supply of troops to the front, he describes the dilemma.

Sources: Der Tagesspiegel, ZDF, AFP, HotNews.ro,