The exact cause of the explosions at the Crimean air base is still unknown, but three important pieces of evidence point to a likely source.

They are presented on his page Twitter journalist Oliver Alexander, a contributor to Foreign Policy, The Washington Post, Der Spiegel and other Western publications, who has published numerous analyzes of the war in Ukraine since the beginning of the “special forces operation” on February 24.

He reminds that there are many video recordings that recorded the exact moment of the explosions at the airfield from different angles, but explains that none of them shows traces of a missile hit.

“There is not a single visible blob or pixel that would indicate a slow, low-altitude Neptune missile or SRBM (short-range ballistic missile),” he notes.

This detail is important because many assumed that since the airbase was too far from the front line to be hit by HIMARS or other salvo systems in service with the Kyiv Armed Forces, the Ukrainians would attack the airfield with Neptune missiles.

They have a significantly greater range of 280-300 kilometers compared to rocket launchers or other weapons systems that could be used for such an attack.

At the same time, there were explosions at the base in Crimea

Secondly, two powerful explosions occurred simultaneously with an interval of one second. While this cannot be achieved with a missile attack, it is much easier to achieve with explosive charges placed by SWAT on the ground.

The third piece of evidence comes from satellite images taken by Maxar in May, which show that all 4 facilities hit during the attack were used to store ammunition for Russian fighter jets. A small amount of explosives placed in these places could cause powerful explosions, Oleksandr explains.

Incidentally, a Ukrainian official told The Washington Post on Wednesday on condition of anonymity that Ukrainian special forces were behind the attack. But some were skeptical of this information, given that The New York Times quoted another official from Kyiv who seemed to confirm the hypothesis about the use of Neptune missiles.

The official cited by the NYT declined to specify what type of weapon was used in the attack, saying only that it was an “exclusively Ukrainian-made” device (like Neptune missiles).

As Oliver Alexander also concludes, the current evidence does not prove with certainty that the attack was carried out by Ukrainian special forces, but shows that this is the most likely scenario.

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