The American author of political books, Robert D. Kaplan, in a material published by Bloomberg, analyzes the possibility of the advance of Russian troops towards Romania and the Republic of Moldova and questions the commitment of the West to such a scenario.

During a visit to Tirgovishte, Romanian experts told Kaplan that they believe Putin will reach the Republic of Moldova and Transnistria. He also stated that “Romanians do not trust France and Germany at all,” according to Bloomberg, which is quoted by news.ro

In 1984, during “the darkest period of the Stalinist regime of Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu,” Kaplan visited the town of Tirgovishte. He describes the city at the time as “hell, with dirty streets, a few battered cars, no decent eating places, and garbage where people looked and smelled bad.”

Kaplan states that after almost four decades since his last visit, Târgovishte “is a bright, lively city with new roads, speed limits, cut flowers and hedges, new supermarkets and restaurants, and the latest cars everywhere. People look and dress the same as in other parts of the West.”

The market has changed thanks to Romania’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union, receiving funds for development, Kaplan thinks.

“Rural areas not only in Romania, but also in other Central and Eastern European countries that joined NATO and the EU in the first decade of the 21st century, look similar. The westernization revolution took place outside the capitals of former communist Europe,” Kaplan writes.

The idea, promoted by many officials in the political community in Washington, that the expansion of NATO and the EU was a mistake and led inexorably to the war in Ukraine, “is undermined by the reality in a place where the political and economic stability of the West extends to the border with Russia,” he states. .

Had Tyrgoviste and other cities in northern Poland not developed over the past three decades, Kaplan said, the US and its democratic allies would have faced “an economic and cultural division of Europe similar to that of the Cold War.”

However, he argues that Romania, the country with the largest population and largest territory in southeastern Europe, is a “nation of concern” in the context of its historical proximity to Russia, whose army invaded Ukraine. Romania and the Republic of Moldova have a longer border with Ukraine than Poland. Greater Romania was partially occupied by Russia 10 times since 1711.

Romanian experts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin will continue to advance in eastern Ukraine and eventually annex Donbas to Russia, saying that any further Ukrainian military activity in the region would be considered an attack on the Russian Federation. They expect Putin to slowly build a land bridge to Crimea and beyond, eventually reaching the Republic of Moldova and the autonomous region of Transnistria, Kaplan said.

Regarding the European allies who came to help Romania, “Romanians do not trust France and Germany at all. It is believed that French President Emmanuel Macron will sacrifice any principle for the sake of turning France into a mediator between Russia and Ukraine,” he said.

On the other hand, Germany has already built two Nord Stream gas pipelines to transport Russian gas.

“And what is built is ultimately used,” said Kaplan, a Romanian analyst.

Kaplan emphasized that despite the economic development of the last three decades, the West must prove its strength in Romania.

He also said that the enlargements of NATO and the EU in 2004 and 2007 took place when Russia under Putin was still relatively weak. Thus, in the eyes of Romanians, “only now is the real test for the West coming.” “People are afraid that the power of Europe will weaken,” he said.

Kaplan explained that Putin’s authoritarian government “is not on the same scale as Ceausescu’s, which included veritable slave labor camps, food rationing and the destruction of a huge historic part of the capital — torn into oblivion to make way for a Stalinist city of the dead that houses grim government offices.” .

He concluded that Putin, like Ceausescu, by invading Ukraine, embarked on an “extreme and risky journey, the end of which cannot be seen,” and emphasized that “in the decline of Ceausescu, there is another lesson for Putin.”