It was the beginning of April 1997 when the Republican, then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Newt Gingrichvisited Taiwan, with Beijing reacting but ultimately “swallowing its anger”, and the trip in question was “eclipsed” by other practically more important events such as China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001.

Nearly 25 years after that April 1997, the self-governing island of Taiwan is once again a thorn in the side of the United States’ relationship with China amid a “threatened” visit by another US official. Taipei.

Nancy Pelosi, 82-year-old current Speaker of the US House of Representatives, is currently (1ⁱⁿ August) on a tour of Asia. According to a schedule released by her own office, a prominent Democratic Party politician is scheduled to visit. Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea as well as Japan.

However, unofficially, “sources” want Pelosi to make a surprise visit to Taiwan on either Tuesday (August 2) or Wednesday (August 3). According to some reports, the 82-year-old American could even spend the night from Tuesday to Wednesday in Taipei.

The possibility of such a visit has long been mooted, casting ominous shadows over Sino-US ties that are already being tested in the face of escalating Sino-American rivalry.

The mentioned “thorn” fell on the table, and during a long telephone conversation, Mr. Joe Biden as well as Xi Jinpingmoreover, the Chinese leader even warned the American side that “those who play with fire get burned” and “perish in the fire.”

For its part, Beijing said it intends to respond to a possible visit by such a high-ranking US official to Taiwan. It should be noted that Nancy Pelosi, as Speaker of the House of Representatives, is at the top of the American hierarchy, second only to President Biden and Vice President C. Harris.

For the Chinese, such a visit is interpreted as Washington’s practical removal of any concept of respect for the “one China policy” (that is, the “one China” policy that recognizes as a state only the People’s Republic of China, not the People’s Republic of China). Taiwan). Therefore, such a visit is a red line that cannot be crossed under any circumstances, especially at the current frontiers: a few months before Xi Jinping’s “historic” third re-election to power in five years and the upcoming XX Congress of the PRC. Chinese Communist Party The Chinese Communist Party is expected in autumn.

But even in the US, there were voices openly opposing Pelosi’s possible move to Taiwan. The White House itself is below them Joe Biden as well as Jake Sullivan separated his position. In a similar vein, the US military warned of the dangers that could accompany such a voyage, and analysts spoke of the “spark” that could set “fire” in – at least, “hot” from a geopolitical point of view – the waters of the South and East China Sea.

It is also reminded that taiwan strait (Taiwan Strait) once functioned as a field of crises and tensions: in 1954-55, 1958, 1995-1996.

Disputes over the island of 23 million people

Taiwan is an island in the Pacific Ocean with a population of about 23 million people, the capital is Taipei. For Beijing, this is “just” another part of the PRC, which has temporarily (de facto, not de jure) separated from the rest of mainland China and will “return” at some point sooner or later. under central control… even by force.

Meanwhile, however, Taiwan itself actually functions as an independent sovereign state with its own parliament, president and ministries, as well as its own armed forces.

The Americans, for their part, are selling arms to the military in question, but have not recognized Taiwan as an independent sovereign state, thereby adhering to the “One China” policy (One China Policy). In this context, the US does not have an embassy in Taipei, but an “institute”, the American Institute in Taiwan, which functions as an embassy (de facto, not de jure).

Many wonder why, under these circumstances, Nancy Pelosi would want to visit this self-governing island in the Pacific, which is surrounded by so much tension?

There are many possible reasons, judging by the analyzes in the American media:

• Fundamentally (Pelosi has long been known for her harsh criticism of Beijing, especially in the field of human rights).
• For reasons of “prestige” (Pelosi, now 82, would like to go down in history as an American politician who gnashed his teeth at Xi Jinping).
• For personal connection reasons (Pelosi is said to feel “close” to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen)
• For pre-election reasons (months before the US midterm elections in November, Democrat Pelosi could thus send a signal of American determination to voters, not only Democrats, but also Republicans who do not see the positive in the rivalry between Beijing and China)

In any case, if the Speaker of the US House of Representatives eventually sets foot in Taipei or tries to land there, the ball will be in Beijing’s favor and it remains to be seen how she will react.

In 1997, when the Speaker of the US House of Representatives last visited Taiwan, the Chinese response was not “impressive.”

However, a lot has changed since then (US Pivot to Asia, Xi Jinping coming to power, Trump’s four years in power, the Sino-US conflict over the Uyghurs in Xinjiang and 5G networks at the international level, the war in Ukraine, etc.). ), with the result that many now even “see” the possibility of a military-style retaliation from Beijing… with all the ensuing retribution (even a hot episode?)…

Anxiety in Europe too

As for the Europeans, they are watching Asian developments with concern, “recognizing that there is a clear risk of the situation getting out of control,” as European Politico notes in its publication, citing diplomatic sources.

At this point, the tension “could easily escalate.” In this regard, almost everyone now agrees: Europeans, Americans, NATO members, and so on.

Gentlemen However, last week Joe Biden and Xi Jinping showed that they are not going to let things go downhill easily.

According to New York Times China Correspondent Chris Buckley, a journalist who has spent many years inside China’s borders, Xi Jinping, despite his nationalist “crowns,” is actually reluctant to risk the current phase of a major new crisis, fearing it could negatively affect the already negative (due to “zero Covid”, etc.) course of the Chinese economy.

If Pelosi ends up going to Taipei, Beijing is likely to respond… with a show of military force (we might see harassment, violations, live fire drills near Taiwan, or overflights)… but avoid a direct and potentially uncontrolled confrontation…